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In the 29 seasons for which we have play-by-play data, only two teams have won more than three games that they trailed by at least 20 points. The 2024-25 Chicago Bulls have already done it twice, coming back from 20 down to beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Oct. 28 and doing it again against the Orlando Magic two nights later.
Two things can increase variance from quarter to quarter within a game. One is pace, because the more possessions there are, the more opportunities you have to score points.
The other is 3-point rate. Shooting more 3-pointers increases the likelihood of a scoring drought or a scoring binge.
Not coincidentally, the Bulls are playing much faster and shooting a lot more 3-pointers than they did last season.
With teams having played just an average of eight games through Wednesday, it’s a little early to put too much into which ones are better on either end of the floor. At this point last season, the Toronto Raptors ranked eighth defensively (they’d finish 26th), while the Pelicans ranked 22nd (they’d finish sixth).
But we can get a good idea of which teams are playing differently. Here’s a look at nine teams that have made changes when we look at pace, ball movement, 3-point rate, offensive rebounding percentage and pick-and-roll coverage…
All stats are through Wednesday, Nov. 6.
DeMar DeRozan’s departure (with his 547 mid-range attempts going to Sacramento) was bound to change how the Bulls play. But their offense has been completely overhauled in Billy Donovan’s fifth season as coach.
The offensive changes haven’t worked particularly well. The Bulls rank 28th on offense, down from 19th last season. Their effective field goal percentage is too far below the league average, but they’re not getting to the line much and (as noted) not giving themselves many second chances. As nice as it is that they’ve come back from two 20-point deficits, it’s not nice that they’ve trailed seven of their eight games by 15 or more.
They were down 30 in the fourth quarter in Dallas on Wednesday, and the Bulls’ new (and not-so-improved) offense now faces the team that had the league’s No. 1 defense last season, hosting the Wolves on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, NBA TV).
First-time coach Charles Lee has his team playing a little more like the one he helped win a championship last season in Boston.
It helps that LaMelo Ball has been healthy this season, and the 3-5 Hornets have scored 3.1 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season. That is the league’s third-biggest jump. They’re still below the league average on that end of the floor, though.
Regarding ball movement, there will be contrasting styles when the Hornets host the Pacers (first in passes per 24 minutes of possession) on Friday (7 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass).
Another first-time head coach (JJ Redick) has made some changes in L.A. The Lakers haven’t changed much in regard to pace or 3-point rate, but…
Having gone 1-4 on their road trip, the Lakers return home (where they’re 3-0) to face the Sixers on Friday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
While the league, as a whole, has seen another jump in 3-point rate, the Grizzlies — with their star back in uniform — have gone in the opposite direction.
Grizzlies’ shooting in the paint, last two seasons
%FGA = Percentage of total FGA
Not surprisingly, the Grizzlies have had the league’s most improved offense by a healthy margin, ranking sixth on that end of the floor and scoring nine more points per 100 possessions than last season. They’ve also done it while missing one or both of their best 3-point shooters.
Desmond Bane has missed the last 4 1/2 games, while Luke Kennard was available for the first time on Wednesday. Their 3-point rate could increase as the season goes on.
Winners of three of their last four, Memphis will host Washington on Friday (8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass) before heading out on a three-game trip.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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